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  • The Paradox of Consumer Choice
    A few years ago I read a book called The Paradox of Choice: Why Less is More by Barry Schwartz. His anecdotes were insightful and pointed to truths about the amount of choice the free market has laid on us as consumers. Of course free markets and consumer choice should be good things, but there are certainly experiences I have had where the overwhelming sense of having too many options made it difficult to actually make a decision. I related to much of what the book was saying, particularly with the experience of picking out a DVD to watch from my massive collection. I recall staring at a wall of DVDs and having the most difficult time deciding what to watch. The decision-making process when faced with so many good choices was simply immobilizing.  
  • The Future of PC and Mobile Processors

    I've spent a lot of time with a number of hardware manufacturers recently, trying to get a glimpse into the next generation of processors and the ways in which they'll impact future gadgets and PCs. In all my meetings, one term has arisen time and again: SOC, or system-on-a-chip.

    Traditionally, chips have been created independently and then coupled together to provide multiple computing features. For example, a manufacturer would create a core processor like an Intel Centrino with a built-in Wi-Fi radio, and then attach that to a systems board, perhaps linking it together with a separate graphics co-processor, in order to deliver enhanced PC graphics. Another might take an ARM core processor and then add on additional features like extended graphics to enhance device functionality.

  • Apple's iPad: Live up the Hype? It Will....
    It was interesting to hear all the chatter after last week's iPad launch. Most reactions I heard from other analysts and media were lukewarm at best...which was what I expected. If you think about it, how can anything live up to the kind of hype leading up to this launch? But there was a lot missed in the media about the event and the product that I hope to share in order to maintain our perspective on not only the iPad but on Apple and their products.  
  • Innovation Abounds - CES 2010 Post Show Analysis

    This year's CES was very interesting. I had felt for the past few years that CES was sorely lacking in the innovation department. But this year it looks like things have changed in the technology industry. Technology companies have realized that to reach the consumer the pace of innovation needs to accelerate, and this year's CES was a start in that direction.  Several things stuck out that I'd like to highlight:  

The Coming Technology Explosion

Written by Ben Bajarin Monday, 19 October 2009 20:20

Not until Intel released and pushed their Atom processor architecture did the world wake up and realize that the vast majority of consumers have enough processing power. The latest and greatest is often more than enough when it comes to CPU’s.  A product like Atom, which is a lower cost CPU, packs enough punch to become attractive to those who seek to put more capable “computing class” CPU’s in their products. This would include products like TVs, GPS devices, next generation mobile devices, cars, etc.

 

Atom for Intel is a product roadmap that eventually gets smaller and draws very little power, something that is important for battery conscious devices, devices that currently don’t run Intel processors. Even though we don’t see an Atom processor in many of these devices yet, I believe very powerful “computing class” silicon is around the corner at price points that will allow for a great deal of experimentation and innovation.   

 

 

Taking another approach to processors, the ARM community, the competitor to Intel and AMD’s X86 CPU architecture, is attacking from the bottom up. ARM chips are the standard for devices like mobile phones and TVs/set top boxes (STB). The ARM family of processors generally does not have as much performance as X86 processors, which is why we don’t see them in computers, but they do out-perform X86 in battery life and price.  ARM sees a future where more powerful “computing class” chips will show up in devices which aim to do more computer-like functions. That would include next generation mobile devices, Netbooks and Smartbooks, and any other similar products we can dream up.

 

Companies like Qualcomm with their Snapdragon architecture, NVIDIA with their Tegra processor, and Marvell with their Armada line of processors are the front-runners in the ARM community. These processors bring a new level of video and graphics (which generally take up the most processing power). They have the potential to deliver them with very low power draws, high processing performance, and at price points that make it possible for the technology to proliferate. We think the ARM community and particularly companies like Marvell, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm will play a huge role in this upcoming technology explosion primarily because of the affordability of their processors. With a low cost of entry to use silicon capable of running applications and playing rich media, we believe we will see a lot of experimentation and innovation based on the ARM processor. 

 

Another interesting question is would Microsoft ever consider supporting the ARM CPU architecture with future versions of Windows?  Microsoft now supports ARM with Windows Mobile and WIN CE, but not their full Windows OS. This could change if and when we see more and more ARM-based Netbooks and Smartbooks running Google’s Android OS or Chrome browser. Microsoft wants a piece of this market as much as anybody and will most likely need to support ARM to get Windows into more of these devices. Win CE and Windows Mobile only gets Microsoft so far, and they know they need to leverage their software ecosystem with Windows in order to appeal broadly to the software community. Supporting ARM creates challenges within their software community that they need to be vested to solve. Challenges like porting the existing Windows software to ARM and creating tool kits that allow developers to write their software once and publish to any platform including ARM devices. Perhaps even a more cloud-based Windows model will provide Microsoft with solutions for the ARM community. If Microsoft does not create a full Windows ecosystem to reach both existing and new devices it will be hard for them to compete with what Google is doing with Android and with Chrome. 

 

The good news in all of this is that next generation silicon from both the ARM community and the X86 community will empower a new wave of devices that are capable of running rich operating systems and software. On all fronts we hope a time is coming where companies take advantage of this new silicon and innovate in new and exciting ways. This in turn will mean that more and more of our everyday devices will be capable of harnessing more computing power and deliver experiences that were not possible before.   


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