Innovation Abounds - CES 2010 Post Show Analysis
Written by Ben Bajarin Tuesday, 19 January 2010 17:31
This year's CES was very interesting. I had felt for the past few years that CES was sorely lacking in the innovation department. But this year it looks like things have changed in the technology industry. Technology companies have realized that to reach the consumer the pace of innovation needs to accelerate, and this year's CES was a start in that direction. Several things stuck out that I'd like to highlight:
Taking Broadband Beyond the PC
I had predicted that internet connectivity into televisions would be a big theme. We had already begun to see this trend show up in the market last year with assistance from Yahoo with their introduction of the Yahoo Widget Channel. But what really started the water boiling in my opinion was when Netflix began to integrate their online streaming service first with the Roku Netflix box and then quickly following with Netflix for the XBOX 360. It became clear at that point that the market was ready for streaming services to break free from the PC and make their way to the television. This year at CES virtually every TV manufacturer was demonstrating how broadband content was coming to their sets. Some embraced the Yahoo Widget channel, some had their own UI's showing access to Netflix, Flickr and other web based services. Based on all the demos on the floor showing TVs benefiting from a broadband connection, it is clear that 2010 is the year connected TVs become a reality.
Given my experiment last year with streaming TV, I am excited to see how the marketplace will embrace and use these new broadband-enabled TVs. PCs and now Smartphones get the bulk of the attention as a hardware and software platform. From what I saw at CES, it appears the TV is poised to become a platform in a way it never was before, and one that is ripe for new applications and services.
SmartPad's, Slates, and Tablets
Not all the innovation that I saw was on the show floor. Much of the innovation I saw was shown behind closed doors. Many household names showed me some incredibly innovative concepts that really got me excited to see how the market reacts to them. The products I saw fell into the much hyped category of late called tablets or slates. It was fascinating how as the products were being described or as speakers were showing off their tablet concepts, that Apple (who does not come to CES) and their rumored tablet (which is still a rumor) was brought up. Nonetheless, many new computing devices with larger screens running anything from Windows 7 to Android were being shown and talked about at CES.
This is encouraging because much of what I saw will most likely not stick, but the fact that device manufacturers are beginning to re-imagine how computers can and will be used by consumers in the future is a positive sign. We do feel that there is a screen in consumers' lives that can exist between their smart phone and their personal computer in size, so between 4 and 10 inches. We think there are trade-offs consumers make today with computing at the small (4") and the large (10+") level, and a device that sits in the middle and addresses those trade-offs can be very interesting.
This will be an interesting year for the category as we see e-readers evolve in this direction and the market dictates what form factors, features and usages stick.
The TVs We Know and Love in 3D
This was one of the more interesting elements of this year's CES - mostly due to the controversial nature of the innovation. It appears there were basically two camps at CES in relation to 3D. One camp says "3D is the next big thing for the CE industry. Someday in the not too distant future all our TVs and content will be in 3D and consumers will love the experience." The other camp says " 3D is only for early adopters and tech enthusiasts. As long as I have to wear those silly glasses the mass market will not embrace 3D."
It was difficult to find an informed, reasonable opinion on this technology, but there were some observations I heard that when compiled together may present some reasonable concensus. The bottom line is 3D for the home will not be widely adopted any time soon. That does not mean that at some point in the future, even if we need to use glasses, it will not be widely adopted. As with any new innovation, it needs time to mature and for the market to dictate which innovations stick. So much is being invested in bringing 3D to the home that it certainly will happen, but right now it is immature and has many hurdles to overcome. The primary hurdle is standards, both for the display and the delivery of 3D content.
As it stands right now, the minimum one will need for 3D is at least a pure 120hz Display that supports the newest HDMI spec HDMI 1.4. TVs will enter the market this year from major CE OEMs that display a pure 120hz and more likely 240hz and support HDMI 1.4, which by the way has barely enough bandwidth to support 3D. We will still need advancements and standards in hardware in order for this technology to proliferate. The good news is there is progress in that direction.
From a content standpoint, we need the broadcasters, broadcast networks, and movie studios to all get on the same page as to what technologies they will use in order to capture and broadcast/distribute their content in 3D. It appears there is momentum for the RealD technology in this space as more and more hardware and content providers standardize on that solution. RealD owns the market for movie theatre 3D so it seems logical that more studios continue to work with them which in turn will drive hardware decisions. Both Sony and Samsung announced that they will be using RealD's solution.
For broadcasters it is a whole different ballgame. Companies like Comcast will need to provide all new set top boxes to customers who want 3D. DirecTV luckily can update some of their newer boxes through software to support HDMI 1.4. There is also the challenge of capturing content in 3D which will be a similar but also slightly more complicated new skill then capturing in HD. USC has launched a public learning center dedicated to teaching those interested in creating 3D content, which is a positive sign to address this challenge.
At an industry level, it is clear that hardware and content providers will be focusing quite a bit on 3D. However, how and when consumers embrace this technology and really where the value is to end consumers is still the question. Although I agree a world in 3D without glasses is the ultimate goal, it is one that is much further off than a 3D future with glasses. And the bottom line from what I have seen so far is that there is only SOME content where consuming it in 3D is better then 2D HD. I've seen footage of football, soccer, and baseball in 3D, and 3D does not bring much to enhance the experience. I've seen movies like Avatar and others where 3D was great but so was the 2D version. I'm still looking for that mass market experience where 3D blows away 2D. I say mass market because I do feel that things like nature shows or live concerts that I have seen in 3D are absolutely better in 3D than in 2D, however those are not mass market.
I think that to convince the naysayers about 3D, the industry needs to find those pieces of content where the 3D experience is enhanced so much that the only thing better was to be there in person.
My CES Winning Innovation
This year's award goes to the Dell Alienware 11x gaming notebook. This is by far the smallest and most powerful gaming notebook. Dell has managed to pack some serious power into a machine with an 11.6" display as well as keep the excellent industrial design of the Alienware Notebook family. Of course if you are a gamer you prefer massive screens for your main play, but what a great machine for a gamer or tech enthusiast to have all that power in a small machine.
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