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  • The Paradox of Consumer Choice
    A few years ago I read a book called The Paradox of Choice: Why Less is More by Barry Schwartz. His anecdotes were insightful and pointed to truths about the amount of choice the free market has laid on us as consumers. Of course free markets and consumer choice should be good things, but there are certainly experiences I have had where the overwhelming sense of having too many options made it difficult to actually make a decision. I related to much of what the book was saying, particularly with the experience of picking out a DVD to watch from my massive collection. I recall staring at a wall of DVDs and having the most difficult time deciding what to watch. The decision-making process when faced with so many good choices was simply immobilizing.  
  • The Future of PC and Mobile Processors

    I've spent a lot of time with a number of hardware manufacturers recently, trying to get a glimpse into the next generation of processors and the ways in which they'll impact future gadgets and PCs. In all my meetings, one term has arisen time and again: SOC, or system-on-a-chip.

    Traditionally, chips have been created independently and then coupled together to provide multiple computing features. For example, a manufacturer would create a core processor like an Intel Centrino with a built-in Wi-Fi radio, and then attach that to a systems board, perhaps linking it together with a separate graphics co-processor, in order to deliver enhanced PC graphics. Another might take an ARM core processor and then add on additional features like extended graphics to enhance device functionality.

  • Apple's iPad: Live up the Hype? It Will....
    It was interesting to hear all the chatter after last week's iPad launch. Most reactions I heard from other analysts and media were lukewarm at best...which was what I expected. If you think about it, how can anything live up to the kind of hype leading up to this launch? But there was a lot missed in the media about the event and the product that I hope to share in order to maintain our perspective on not only the iPad but on Apple and their products.  
  • Innovation Abounds - CES 2010 Post Show Analysis

    This year's CES was very interesting. I had felt for the past few years that CES was sorely lacking in the innovation department. But this year it looks like things have changed in the technology industry. Technology companies have realized that to reach the consumer the pace of innovation needs to accelerate, and this year's CES was a start in that direction.  Several things stuck out that I'd like to highlight:  

Apple's iPad: Live up the Hype? It Will....

Written by Ben Bajarin Monday, 01 February 2010 16:03

It was interesting to hear all the chatter after last week's iPad launch. Most reactions I heard from other analysts and media were lukewarm at best...which was what I expected. If you think about it, how can anything live up to the kind of hype leading up to this launch? But there was a lot missed in the media about the event and the product that I hope to share in order to maintain our perspective on not only the iPad but on Apple and their products.  
 
Great Hardware Deserves Great Software
Apple has constantly communicated and stood by their belief in the above statement. If we think back to the original iPhone, it really wasn't until developers got hold of the SDK and started  flooding the newly launched app store that the device really demonstrated its value. With the iPad, Apple has introduced to the market some excellent hardware and now it will be up to the software and the content industry to take advantage of it. Apple will obviously encourage the developer community and continue to seed the iPad experience with their own software, but the iPad must ultimately be a viable vehicle for software and content developers. 

I have also heard a lot of complaints about what the iPad does not have. Those are valid complaints, however Apple does a great job meeting the market where it is at. Given the fact that the iPad is in a new category of products, one that many of us let alone the masses are unfamiliar with, it is important that the device begin to get adopted. Keeping the price reasonable is an important factor in the device's adoption. Hopefully the $499 entry level price is low enough that it does do well in the market so that more content and more software will get developed for the iPad. Apple will not stop innovating with the hardware features of any of their devices, iPad included.   
 
What Will the iPad Do Better?
It is difficult with only 10 minutes of hands-on experience to truly discern where the iPad may fit into consumers' lives.  I did, however, have enough time to conclude that there will be a place for it in consumers' lives...if not now, then in the near future. I believe that once we get some more hands-on time, we will really begin to see what tasks we would prefer to do on the iPad rather than with our other devices.   

As Steve Jobs pointed out in his presentation, Apple believed that a device could exist and be valuable in a form factor that is between the mobile phone and the notebook. We completely agree that such a device has a role in the market. The point Steve Jobs was trying to make was that if this device did not do certain things better then the mobile phone and the notebook then it has no reason to exist. So now the question becomes what are those tasks people do with their mobile devices and their notebooks that the iPad will do better? This obviously does not mean that you can't do these same tasks and more with your mobile phone and notebook, but only that the iPad will do those tasks better and become your preferred device to do those tasks.   

Some of the obvious tasks are things like watching movies or TV shows. This experience will absolutely be better than on the iPhone because the screen is larger, and better than the notebook because it is easier to hold and move closer or farther from your face. I can already see my kids using this in the backseat on long trips to watch TV and movies. Given the battery in the iPad will last longer then a notebook fully charged it definitely shines in this use case. I recognize the device cannot run Flash or Flash videos. This is a valid point, but let's not be too short-sighted and remember what HTML 5 will open up for the content market. The dominance of Flash is a short-term reality, not necessarily a long-term one. 

Other tasks like viewing/displaying photos, even web browsing may be better on the iPad. I'd love to use it as a notepad to replace my physical notebook. Magazines and newspapers--even future books that blend text and media--can really shine on this platform. I loved what one of the presenters from the New York Times said about their NY Times app for the iPad: "It's the best of the web and the best of the physical paper."  I hope the content industry thinks more like this as they look to new platforms for opportunities.

The bottom line is the form factor, the screen size, the multi-touch, the portability, and more will definitely lead the iPad to be a better device at a number of tasks. But only time will tell what tasks will be preferred on this platform. 

The Market for Tablets
A good question to ask is what happens to Netbooks? As Steve Jobs pointed out, he did not feel Netbooks fit the category between the mobile phone and the Notebook mainly because he said Netbooks didn't do anything well. What we found fascinating about Netbooks as they were gaining in popularity was that consumers were using them simply to be at home and browse the web.   NPD released their numbers last year saying 60% of Netbooks never left the house. More researched surfaced showing that browsing the web was one of the primary activities for which consumers used their Netbooks. It really came down to Netbooks were a inexpensive gateway to the internet.   

The iPad will demonstrate the same value, but it will also be a e-reader, digital photo frame, portable TV, gaming device, an iPod, and so much more. Netbooks could be 30% of the Notebook market this year and I feel that Apple has just called the value of the Netbook into question. If you are a consumer looking at a Netbook because it is an inexpensive gateway to the internet, why would you not consider the iPad when it is that and so much more for about the same price? I'm not convinced the iPad will cannibalize Apple's Mac business, however I do feel it will eat into the market for Netbooks which is a market expander for Apple, not necessarily a market cannibalizer. Imagine many iPad's in consumers homes playing a number of roles as a smart screen. 


As to the question asked of me frequently yesterday "does the iPad live up to the hype" my answer is it may not right away but it will.

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iPad vs. Netbook . . . "about the same price?"
written by Dan Martin, February 11, 2010
Uhh. . .Ben, I dunno about you, but the difference between $279 and $499 doesn't seem like "about the same price" to me. If the iPad is going to replace the "inexpensive gateway to the web" role of the netbook, it's going to have to add quite a lot of value to justify what by my math is nearly double the price point.

In all of the continued buzz around both iPhone and iPad, I wonder when someone's going to seriously broach the subject of Apple's stranglehold on the software/content distribution channel. Until there are options besides the iStore for obtaining (and delivering) content, I have to believe the market--however strong--is limiting itself.

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