Does Twitter have a Future
Written by Ben Bajarin Wednesday, 19 August 2009 15:16
Twitter (or Tweeter as my friends in LA call it) has been such a hot topic lately I thought it would be good to provide a quick analysis of the service and share a little of our thoughts on what the future for Twitter may be.
It seems that Twitter has evolved to be much more than it set out to be. The initial elevator pitch by company founders to investors was that Twitter would be a service where people could say what they were up to in 140 characters or less. It was meant to be that simple, yet it has evolved into something much bigger than that.
I’ve racked my brain and have trouble coming up with any really good reasons for “regular Joes” off the street to be posting tweets. In fact one of the first social experiments I tried with a test bed of college students and friends was to have everyone use the service regularly in order to answer the question “why should we care what everyone is doing all the time.” The answer was we didn’t. At the end of the experiment it was clear that it was interesting for a short amount of time but then it became too much work.
Posts often call Twitter a service for narcissists which may not be too far from the truth for those “regular Joes.” However for those with something to market, and yes that can often be yourself, the service can be greatly useful.
The value of Twitter from a marketing standpoint is now slowly beginning to be understood and a great deal of experimentation is happening, which is good. Ashton’ Kutcher’s challenge with CNN brought more of this to light, and his comments at the Fortune conference cemented his view on Twitter being used for marketing. According to a Harris Interactive Poll 45% of advertisers believe Twitter is still in its infancy and will grow exponentially in the next few years. According to the same poll only 12% of consumers say the same, while 69% of consumers say they don't know enough about Twitter to have an opinion.
So what will come of Twitter? When I ask others in casual conversations with people who use the service they mention the most valuable way they use Twitter is for news aggregation. Rarely do I hear of people using it to alert others of what they are doing.
Twitter then is simply a useful tool to aggregate data you are interested in. For some people, that may often be what their friends are doing, however those who have the most to gain for developing a following among the masses are the news outlets, companies of interest, public figures, celebrities or artists of interest, etc.
One of the foremost marketing challenges is in trying to get above the buzz to compete for the consumers eyes and ears. Opt-In emails, websites, TV, radio, billboards, magazines and more have all been employed in an attempt to keep and maintain a consumer’s interest. The music industry, for example, spends hundreds of thousands and often millions of dollars in the attempt to remind fans of a particular artist about this person’s music or an artist’s new album. Imagine, however, if an artist had a following of half a million people on Twitter. With one sentence they could instantly tell their fans to go to their website and sample the music from their new album so they could pre-order it. This would now allow the artist to engage with their fans in new ways and use it to their benefit. Same thing could happen when an author publishes a new book. Imagine if he used Twitter to crowd source ideas and involve his followers in the writing process. Same thing could go for actors looking to promote a new movie or companies looking to promote new products.
Twitter’s challenge first and foremost will be how to make money off those who have much to gain from using Twitter for marketing purposes. Twitter is going to have to develop a compelling reason for companies to spend valuable marketing dollars in their ecosystem.
I suspect that whether Twitter solves their business model problem or not smart people have observed the marketing power of tools that allow people to engage with them in new and creative ways. Harnessing these tools wisely is where the strategy comes in to play.

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